INSA keeps publishing a new poll every 3 days in which the AfD is consistently stronger as in the other polls
Actual results (Feb 23, 2025): CDU/CSU 28.5%, AfD 20.8%, SPD 16.4%, Greens 11.6%, Left 8.8%, BSW 5.0%, FDP 4.3% | Rank | Pollster | Notable accuracy | |---|---|---| | 1 | **YouGov** | All parties within 1 pt except Greens (1.4 pts off); MRP called 91% of constituencies correctly | | 2 | **Forsa** | CDU/CSU, AfD spot on; slightly underestimated Greens | | 3 | **INSA** | Solid across the board; minor misses on fringe parties | | 4 | **Infratest dimap** | Reliable, slight underestimate of Left | | 5 | **Forschungsgruppe Wahlen** | Good on big parties; CDU at 28 (vs 28.5 actual) | | 6 | **Ipsos** | CDU slightly overestimated at 30–31 | | 7 | **Allensbach** | Worst of the majors — CDU at 32, notably off | YouGov's final poll hit every party within one percentage point (Greens being the only slight miss at 1.4 pts), and their MRP model correctly called 91% of constituencies. Overall the 2025 cycle was more accurate than prior elections for most houses, with the CDU/CSU lead well-forecast — though threshold parties like FDP and BSW were trickier to nail.
>>124644
show belly
>>124644 bit weird
>>124648 lol
